By Brian

Monday, November 7, 2022 - 05:35

Disney Parks fans had never been more ecstatic than upon entering the 2022 D23 Expo.

Disney’s semi-annual conference has long been a banner day for fans of Disney Parks, and especially over the preceding decade, had become the event of odd-numbered years. With its biggest fans in attendance, the weekend-culiminating, multi-hour Parks Presentation has always been part wedding, part funeral; a place for big announcements, splashy cameos, and concept art reveals that leave fans stunned and speculating.

Given that the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic had seen the face of Disney Parks forever changed by cancelled projects, lost perks, and new upcharges, the 2022 Parks Panel was viewed by many as a chance to see what lay ahead for a rebounding division of the company… and under the new leadership of franchise-focused CEO Bob Chapek, IP infusions across the resorts seemed inevitable. Fans merely crossed their fingers that, post-COVID, the projects announced at the Expo would match the ambition of former CEO Bob Iger’s splashiest, like the billion-dollar reimagining of California Adventure, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, Cars Land, and Pandora: The World of Avatar.

But no one expected the news that fans actually left the Parks Presentation with: nothing.

Image: Disney

Though Disney’s Parks Chairman, Josh D’Amaro, took the multi-hour window to provide status updates on some (but not all) projects already in the works, re-affirmed plans for a (scaled back) Avengers E-Ticket at California Adventure and a Princess and the Frog reimagining of Splash Mountain, and spoke at length about new meet-and-greets, merchandise, and promotional shows planned for Disney’s parks during 2023 and 2024, fans left the Presentation with zero new projects announced.

That’s surprising for a few reasons. One is certainly that with skyrocketing prices, increasingly incomprehensible complexity, and slashed perks galore, online sentiment has turned against Disney World since 2020. Industry insiders warn that Disney’s post-pandemic cash-in on formerly-free services (like airport transportation, FastPass, package pick-up, resort parking, and MagicBands) may be a smart move for the quarter, but that long-term, the moves have soured word of mouth and ensured that over the next few years, Disney will doubtlessly see a major drop-off in bookings.

Image: Disney

But the lack of anything new announced at D23 is also surprising because it means Disney isn’t worried about Epic Universe at all. Think about it – Disney is notoriously slow when it comes to developing new attractions. As an extreme example, though the pandemic surely slowed its construction, Magic Kingdom’s Modern Marvel: TRON: Lightcycle Run was announced in July 2017 and will just barely be ready to open in Spring 2023 – nearly six years later (even excepting a three-month outright pause and a company-wide slow-down during the pandemic).

That means that if Disney were going to have anything ready for 2025’s Epic Universe, it would’ve needed to have been announced in… well… let’s just say, Disney won’t have anything ready to meet Epic Universe head on. If Disney broke ground on a new E-Ticket just after the conclusion of the D23 Expo in September 2022, it surely wouldn’t be ready until 2026 or later.

Disney Indifference

You can see why everyone wishes that Disney had leapt into action at the idea of Epic Universe. For Universal fans, it would’ve been confirmation that the third gate project really is a substantial move that could shift the gravity in Orlando; for Disney fans, it would show that the company can still rally around its theme parks post-pandemic and continue the build-outs that EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom so desperately need.

So… why isn’t Disney worried about Epic Universe? Here’s our thinking…

1. Disney’s current leaders just aren’t theme park people

Image: Disney

Back in the ’80s and ’90s, Michael Eisner embraced Disney’s theme parks as an untapped gold mine; a “secret weapon” in the company’s arsenal that, when empowered with big budgets, pop culture presence, and new technologies, could become global destinations and feel-good public relations centers. Eisner really seemed to love the parks both personally and professionally, and that reflected in his early work with them.

Eisner built out not just the capacities and contents of Disney’s theme parks, but the infrastructure that supports them –the hotels, restaurants, architecture, services, perks, and systems. Eisner oversaw international expansion, park-to-resort transformations, and big, bold ideas for what “Disney” could be – from winners like the Disney Cruise Line and Disney Vacation Club, to bold, ambitious losers like DisneyQuest and the Disney Institute. But every step of the way, the parks were one of his focuses.

Image: Disney

Bob Iger took up that cause, too – albeit, at first, by having to right the wrongs of Eisner’s last few mistakes. After that, Iger seemed to see how his own legacy – acquisition and growth – could be reflected in the parks. Hence the 2000s and 2010s being an era of incredible investment. Iger saw the parks as “brand deposits,” endeavoring to exceed Universal’s Wizarding World watermark with unprecedented expansions, culminating in Galaxy’s Edge and his own legacy marker: Shanghai Disneyland, embodying his focus on Disney Parks as company landmarks.

By comparison, Bob Chapek seems to view Disney’s theme parks very differently. In part because he arrived at the Parks via the division’s merger with Consumer Products (through which he arose), Chapek is viewed as a reactive leader who relies heavily on data rather than creative intuition. It makes sense for a data-driven manager from Consumer Products to see the parks through the (boring) lens of being “brand loyalty centers” – a divisional bucket whose best use is to collect content from Disney + Pixar + Marvel + Star Wars. And hey, from a company-wide perspective, that’s not an inherently wrong way to view Disney’s theme parks… but it does feel short-sighted.

Image: Disney

Franchise-focused and laser-set on reorganizing Disney as a tech-first entertainment company with streaming, merchandising, and licensing at the forefront, Chapek just doesn’t seem very interested in Disney’s theme parks… at least, not beyond the notion that they can be franchised and monetized. That’s why operational efficiency and per-capita spending have de facto replaced guest satisfaction as the Parks’ metric; it’s why Chapek’s team plainly states that fewer Annual Passholders and more “favorable guests” who spend more money on each visit is the goal.

Put simply, those who follow the Walt Disney Company today aren’t particularly surprised that it isn’t being proactive about prepping for Epic Universe. Though Parks fandom is eagerly awaiting the “showdown,” corporate Disney is focused elsewhere. If Epic Universe ends up making a dent in Disney Parks’ bottom line, Chapek will likely instruct his teams to react.

And that “if” brings us to our next reason Disney doesn’t seem too worried…

2. Universal hasn’t hurt them yet

Image: Universal

Lest we forget, both of Universal’s theme parks have threatened Disney’s dominance in theory, then left next to no mark on the Mouse House’s bottom line.

That’s not a slight to Universal, whose two Orlando parks are sensational in their own right, and made all the more unmissable by the Wizarding World. There’s no question that Universal has taken big chances and gotten big results. Islands of Adventure, in particular, resides atop many theme park fans’ rankings as an A-Tier park rivaling and in places surpassing some of Disney’s equivalent efforts.

But let's not lose our heads. Though fans cite the Wizarding World as the one to beat in today's theme park industry, the fact is that in 2019, Islands of Adventure was visited by 10.3 million guests; Universal Studios, 10.7 million. The same year, Magic Kingdom was visited by 21 million... the equivalent of Islands of Adventure and Universal Studios combined.

Image: Universal

So the long and short is that – three decades after Universal arrived in Orlando – Disney still hasn’t had to shatter that “Break Glass In Case of Competition” emergency box. Disney didn’t really need to do anything at all to combat Universal until the Wizarding World, and only once Hogsmeade opened did the lumbering beast of Disney begin to stir on projects that didn’t actually open for 7, 8, 9 years after. So even if you could argue that the Wizarding World lit a fire beneath Disney’s parks, Chapek’s ascendence seems to snuffed it back out.

If “the best predictor of future behavior is relevant past behavior,” is it really any surprise that Disney’s 2022 D23 Expo didn’t include any “Epic Universe killers,” or really, anything at all? We can hope that Epic Universe is different – either because we want Universal to dominate, because we want a fire lit under Disney, or both – but from Disney’s perspective, you can understand why the threat of Epic Universe isn’t exactly paralyzing. Quite the contrary, Disney likely anticipates weathering the opening of Universal’s new gate – whether it’s a rainshower or a hurricane.

Image: Disney

You can chalk that up to our frustrating-but-true areas in which Universal simply can’t beat Disney – a sort of brand-loyalty foundation that comes pre-baked into Disney, rain or shine. Universal can expand its footprint, ride count, and quality all it wants, but Magic Kingdom will always be the most-visited park in the country for a whole lot of very complex reasons.

So it makes sense that Disney would expect to weather this one just like it’s weathered every challenge Universal has mounted so far. And as a cherry on top, there’s one last reason we think Disney just isn’t too worried about Epic Universe…

Universal could very well mess this up… again

Image: Universal

What is a “resort”? If you ask most people, it’s an all-inclusive luxury hotel at a tropical destination, or a mountainside European lodge. But if you’re visiting Universal Orlando Resort or Disneyland Resort or Walt Disney World Resort, you’re meant to know that it means “an entertainment complex with multiple theme park, retail, dining, and hotels.”

What is a “theme park”? Some may think of a single “gate” like Islands of Adventure, California Adventure, or Disneyland Park as a theme park residing within a Resort; but others call Walt Disney World a theme park. And hey, Universal tells us that its waterpark is a “theme park,” but supposes Disney’s two waterparks aren’t.

Image: Disney / Lucasfilm

And then there are the “Harry Potter theme park,” the “Cars theme park,” and the “Star Wars theme park” that the media talks about, recognizing (probably correctly) that discussing the same projects as “lands” wouldn’t translate well to the general public for whom that term doesn’t mean anything.

In short, none of this is intuitive. It’s a big task for a 30-second ad spot to explain to guests that Universal’s Orlando “Resort” has a new “Theme Park” with a Nintendo “Land” and a MarioKart “Ride” – all of which are essential messages if you want people to understand that they need not only to visit, but to stay longer.

Unless Universal really nails the marketing campaign, the differences between Universal Studios, Islands of Adventure, and Epic Universe won’t be obvious at first glance or even casual study. (Why should Monsters be in Epic Universe instead of the Studio? Why would Marvel superheroes on an Island instead of a Universe?)

Image: Universal

Sure, the “rules” of Resorts and Theme Parks are more solidified today than they were during Universal’s first growth spurt… But consider that even after Universal’s official announcement of Epic Universe, even in-the-know fans briefly debated whether Epic Universe was the name of the park, or of the entire new “South Complex,” which will contain the theme park, its “CityWalk” like shopping district, and a number of hotels all with the same aesthetic as the Epic Universe logo. And to that point, look at the simple, infographic map again, which really does little to visually rank each logo, or to clearly articulate what’s what in the hierarchy of the destination. Universal still doesn’t seem entirely clear on how to convey what its main draws are versus the supporting actors.

There’s no question that Universal’s star is rising in Orlando, and that the presence of Hogsmeade and Diagon Alley has helped not only to get folks into the property, but to reintroduce and differentiate its two parks – at least by their respective halves of the Wizarding World.

But look at Universal’s current international marketing blitz – “Let Yourself Woah!” It’s certainly a great tone-setter, and does a remarkable job of showcasing a number of the resort’s newest rides and biggest brands. However, would a layman recognize from it that Universal has multiple theme parks, a waterpark, and hotels to visit? And if extending stays is your objective, shouldn’t a marketing campaign clearly convey that?

After all, most people in the country – and even most visitors to Orlando – have far less familiarity with Universal Orlando than with Walt Disney World. It will be an uphill battle to clearly, concisely articulate in ads that Universal Orlando now offers three (or – blegh – is it four?) theme parks – the movie one, the adventure one, and the new one; the cities, the islands, and the galaxy; the Studio Gates, the Lighthouse, and the ______; Universal Studios, Islands of Adventure, and Epic Universe.

Image: Universal

Comcast may give Universal Parks an unprecedented mouthpiece for spreading the mouthful that “Universal’s Epic Universe at Universal Orlando Resort” is coming, but the question is, will people understand it?

Though the far reach of Comcast may provide an unprecedented mouthpiece to deliver the mouthful that “Universal’s Epic Universe at Universal Orlando Resort” is coming, will the message be understandable? And even if it is, will people understand? That’s the question…

The Coin Flip

So will Universal’s Epic Universe shift the gravity in Orlando in a measurable way? Will Walt Disney World actually loose some ground to its longtime competitor, whose new, deep-pocketed owners see “only one way to go” for their expanding Florida campus?

Right now, we’d call it a coin flip.

Image: Universal

A whole lot is leveraged against Universal – including its own history, rife with big, bold, ambitious plays at Disney that largely landed with thuds. As we’ve explored, each of Universal’s previous two parks has seemingly been perfectly angled to compete with Disney’s equivalent offering of the era… and each, for one reason or another, hasn’t. The financial backing of Comcast has clearly reinvigorated Universal’s fight, with Epic Universe as a pinnacle of their decade of massive investment. But Universal could easily miss the mark, failing to convey what they have to offer… it’s happened before.

But we also can’t fully consider the effects of Epic Universe without acknowledging Disney’s current position… Having radically shifted its vision toward streaming and content acquisition, the company leadership’s attention is simply elsewhere. For many reasons, Disney doesn’t feel the need or even want to buff up its Parks prior to Epic Universe’s opening. That’s their prerogative, and perhaps even conveys a quiet strength; that they’re quite literally unbothered by the opening of a multi-billion dollar park down the street.

Image: Disney

The flip side of that coin, though, is that Disney’s shifted focus has also seen some of its longstanding allegiance and earned goodwill evaporate.

Just five years ago, Disney’s premium pricing and on-site lodging guarunteed guests free parking, free FastPass, free airport transportation, and free MagicBands. Today, a family of four will pay over $700 just to recreate what used to be included in a Disney World hotel stay to say nothing of increased ticket, hotel, and food prices across the board – all while Chapek proudly proclaims his preference for business models that rely on fewer guests who pay more, and strict, unflinching reliance on Disney+ content to populate the parks.

Put another way, post-pandemic Disney Parks haven’t made many friends, or kept all the ones they’d had to begin with. If ever Universal had the opportunity to take the market share who’ve sworn off Disney’s astounding price increases, unapologetic complexity, slashed perks, overreliance on cell phones, and unmitigated upcharges, now is the time… and Epic Universe could be the thing to do it.

Image: Disney

Until then, it’s really no surprise that Disney’s project timeline goes blank just as Epic Universe rises. If Universal’s Epic Universe turns out to be the game-changer that so many hope, maybe Disney will awaken and stretch and lumber back to life once more to add some ill-begotten animated lands to Animal Kingdom, or shoehorn more Disney and Pixar into EPCOT.

But until then, Disney’s new model – add-ons, upcharges, slimmed portions, meet-and-greets, limited time promotional events, and character overlays – is doing just fine, with or without those noisy neighbors down the street.